I Want Winners!

My feelings regarding the signing of 33 year old reliever Rafael Soriano portrayed in temperature: luke warm.  Closer to hot than cold, though..

Soriano can gobble up a ton of innings from the bullpen if needed.  How the Nationals make him worth $28 million (and a forfeited 1st round pick) over 2 years with the likes of Clippard, Stammen, and Storen already in the bullpen (all making less than 1/5 of what Soriano will be making this year), I’m not sure.  Making him the 2nd highest paid reliever in baseball, behind only Mariano Rivera, tells me he will be the primary closer, however.

He’s had two great years in which he had over 40 saves in his decade long career.  Maybe it’s the fact that he’s only 0 runs on 2 hits in his last 5 appearances in the playoffs (7.1 innings) and has shown he can handle the big stage being the everyday closer under the Yankees bright lights.

The fact he is in the bullpen is only beneficial for the Nats for the immediate future, but then you begin to think of other places this $28 million could go, say, next year. Maybe when Ted Lerner said money isn’t an issue, he really meant it.

The Nationals recently announced they are projecting that Stephen Strasburg’s last start will be September 12th.  Last night, the Nationals had 19 hits, including a DC record 6 home runs.  Jayson Werth had 4 hits in the leadoff spot and has at least 1 hit since he’s come off the DL in every game except 5, LaRoche was a ridiculous 4 for 4 with 2 bombs, and Tyler Moore continued to contribute to my opinion that he has the most natural strength on the team (will be a real nice bat coming off the bench in October).

In the first month of the season, the Nationals were ranked 27th in runs scored.  They were completely relying on the phenomenal efforts coming from their rotation, including Strasburg.  In July and August, the Nats were ranked 4th and 9th, respectively.  The pitching has been very solid, but not the key.  For those that think we should have limited Strasburg at the beginning of the year (when we were not scoring runs), you are an idiot.

Without Strassy at the beginning of the year, it’s very doubtful that we have this extremely comfortable 7.5 game lead for the division at the beginning of September.  Those saying we should have limited him are just assuming we would have had those wins early without him pitching every 5 days, which is a huge assumption given our previous hitting struggles mentioned earlier.

Rizzo has put this team, arguably the best team in baseball right now, together from scratch without the extravagant payroll of a Boston or New York team.  Questioning this man who obviously has so much knowledge about the game is not the smartest thing to do, in my opinion.  But hey, if you want to listen to radio hosts and guys that use to be in baseball that are now ‘analysts’ go right ahead.  I’m going to trust the best General Manager in baseball and the doctor that performed the surgery.

Bernadina’s ridiculous game-saving catch last night in the bottom of the 12th inning to end the game (which was #1 on SportsCenter’s top 10 plays) made me start thinking about how clutch this guy is.  I’ve always been a huge fan of ‘the Shark’, and it seems like he always quietly finds a way to make plays not only defensively, but offensively, in big situations.  I decided to look up some stats and see if my intuition was correct.

First, non-pressure situations.  Currently, with no men on, Bernadina is batting a measly 23 for 102, putting him at a .225 average in this particular situation.  Unfortunately this makes up most of his at bats because, as you’ll see, he excels when there are bodies on the bags.

Overall, with runners on base, Bernadina is batting .347, over 120 points higher than with nobody on.  He has 2 more hits in this situation with 30 less at bats.

Breaking the ‘runners on’ split down even further, he is 17 for 44 for a .386 batting average with runners in scoring position.  And to go even further, he is a ridiculous 12 for 25 (.480) with men in scoring position and 2 outs.

A small cherry on top (aside from being undoubtedly the best defensive option in centerfield), he’s 1 for 1 with the bases loaded this year.  Shark week started waaay early..

In addition to the Nationals being ranked in 1st place in every pitching statistical category of note, they are climbing there way up the ranks in batting.  I’ve advocated for a while now that our pitching maintaining its’ dominance is a lot more likely than our hitting maintaining its’ woefulness.  Hitting can be streaky and is the hardest thing to do in sports.  It may take hitters a while to get in a groove where they feel comfortable at the plate.  Just look at Espinosa..

I’m not saying pitching isn’t very hard, but with pitching, if you have great stuff (which our staff does), it’s just about the confidence you have in it.  It doesn’t have to do with the shear physics of trying to hit a round ball with a round bat.  Getting a hit, statistically, is just harder than getting a guy out.  There is a reason for that.

There are other contributing factors besides it finally clicking for some of our hitters in the batters’ box.  The addition of Morse from the DL has been huge.  He already has 25 RBIs on the year, 6th on the team, in only 45 games played.  He also has the 6th most home runs on the team with 6.

Another huge contributor, the medical advisors that advised Ryan Zimmerman to avoid the DL and take a cortisone shot on June 24th.  In those 26 games since then, Zimmerman has 11 homeruns, 31 RBIs and is batting .383 with a total of 41 hits.  Stupid numbers is all I’ll say about that.

How about Bernadina?  I’ve always loved this guy and had confidence he can get the job done.  In the month of July, he’s batting .441 (15 hits in 34 at
bats) and 6 stolen bases, 2nd only to Ian Desmond (who’s had more opportunities) with 7 on the month.  Another interesting stat is how he does against our biggest rival this year, the Braves.  He’s 9 for 14 for a .643 batting average.  My suggestion would be to keep him in the lineup around 7 or 8, and put him in centerfield, defense being his strength.  That keeps our strongest arm, Bryce’s, in right, and our weakest, Morse’s, in left.

The Nats are now ranked 8th in the National League, a rank that is trending up, in runs scored.  They are averaging just under 5 runs a game since the All Star break.  They’ve scored more runs than any other team in the NL in the month of July.  3rd in the Majors.

Excluding the woeful Phillies who are 1-9 in their last 10, all NL East teams head in to the break winning 6 of their last 10.  The Nationals sit atop the division by 4 games over the Braves, and have the best record in the National League.  According to ESPN.com’s standings, this puts them at a 78.2% chance to make the playoffs, although this stat is slightly confusing to me given that they have the Giants with an 8% better chance than the Dodgers, even though the Dodgers have a better record..

Ian Desmond will not be participating in the All-Star game due to an injured oblique, despite being  14 for 37 (.378) with 5 homeruns and 12 RBIs in his last 10 games.  Bryce Harper, however, will be on the team.  I know Davey Johnson said he was happy when David Freese originally beat him out in the voting, stating he wanted Bryce to get some rest, but I’d bet a lot of money he was even happier finding out Bryce will in fact be an All Star.

I’m definitely looking forward to seeing the best strikeout pitcher in the league, Strasburg, and the best curveball in the league, Gio’s, take on the stud hitters the AL has to offer.  One guy I feel bad for, although I can’t really call it a snub due to his record (which is no fault of his own), is Jordan Zimmermann.  JZ, with a 2.61 ERA, has the best ERA on the team, but a 5-6 record.  If they could find a way to get him some run support, who knows how many games the Nats would be up in the standings by now.

I’m sure all the players are looking forward to the break and a chance to rest their bodies as well as their minds, but as a fan, I’m not.  They are playing so well, I want them to stay in this groove.  The one thing I will say is it’s usually the offense you need to get in a rhythm, and is the side of the ball that can easily be derailed.  The Nats have not been relying on offense, as their pitching has been doing most of the heavy lifting.  Pitching is much more sustainable (the percentage for getting guys out is a lot better than the percentage for guys getting hits).

Ryan Zimmerman has not been having the sort of year you would expect from Ryan Zimmerman.  He’s been battling inflammation in his shoulder and does not have the offensive numbers you need from a guy you just signed to a $100 million deal.  Through June 23rd, Zimmerman was batting a miserable .218.  He’s a guy that loves the game, and the last thing he wants to do is sit after getting a huge deal.  Sitting was not an option, and despite his poor offensive play he was still playing tremendous defense.

A cortisone shot was an option.  Doctors told Zimmerman that his shoulder could not be injured any further, so he was given the shot before their game against the Orioles on June 24th.  In the 10 games since receiving the shot, Zimmerman is batting .370 with 4 homeruns and 16 RBIs.  His surge has allowed Bryce to see more strikes in the 2-hole, only walking twice in those 10 games.

It’s no coincidence that the Nats offensive explosion coincides with Zimmerman’s success.  When your 3-spot is doing his job, the rest of the team will follow.

The top 2 concerns for the Nationals currently are centerfield on defense and the leadoff spot on offense.  One positive about these 2 needs is, often, they are not mutually exclusive.

A short-term option is to trade.  Michael Bourn of the Atlanta Braves, a leadoff centerfielder currently batting .304, is a possible trade prospect.  The Nats may be asked to give up more than they’re willing to part with, though, so it’s potentially an unrealistic option.  Also, Bourn is a free agent after the 2012 season, and David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution estimates that he will be asking for a 5-6 year deal worth approximately $15 million a year.  Given the cash that they’re currently spending on Zimmerman and Werth, I doubt Rizzo would want to part with that kind of dough, so this would be a one and done deal, I’d assume.

Another, more long-term option, is to stand pat, allowing Bryce Harper to assume some of the duties in center for the time being.  In doing this, you would assume that Rizzo has high hopes for their prospect currently in Hagerstown, Brian Goodwin.

Goodwin was a stud in JUCO after transferring from UNC due to an off the field incident after his Freshman year (a year in which he started every game for the Tar Heels batting .291).  After batting .382 at Miami Dade College, Goodwin committed to play for the very prestigous South Carolina Gamecocks (then, back to back National Champions). Instead of heading back to school, however, Goodwin decided to join the Nationals after being the 1st supplemental pick.  He is currently batting .323 in A-ball, leading off and playing center for the Suns.

I predict the latter is the likely option.  Our outfield hitting is getting a lot better with Morse back in the lineup and Tyler Moore hitting the way he is, and Bryce has been serviceable defensively in arguably the toughest position on the field (excluding pitcher).  The deadline is the last day of this month, so if anything is going to happen, I’m sure we’ll start to hear the rumors very soon.

LaRoche is having a strong bounce back year after only playing 43 games last year due to injury.  While his batting average has dropped significantly since earlier in the year, he still has 15 homeruns and 47 RBIs.  That ranks him 1st and 2nd, respectively, among 1st basemen.  LaRoche’s defense is another strong asset adding to his potential value for buyers.

The Nationals’ outfield is beginning to get crowded.  Tyler Moore is crushing the ball, batting .346 and looks to have the most natural power in the entire lineup.  Bryce Harper has been playing phenomenally.  Morse is starting to hit the ball.  Werth will be back eventually.  All 4 of these guys need to be in the lineup everyday, I think.  When Werth comes back, he’ll be in right, Bryce in center, and Morse in left.  Then what do you do with Moore?  Are we going to sit the 25 year old batting .346 who is a natural 1st baseman for the 32 year old batting .251?

I’m not sure how much value we can get for LaRoche, but coupled with something (maybe a prospect?), I would like to see them go after another arm.  Strasburg isn’t going to be here all year.  Unless their super confident Lannan can come back up and help the team, or Wang will get his act together (highly doubtful), another pitcher has to be a target.  LaRoche is about as valuable as he’s going to get with us, might as well stick to our youth philosophy.

Everyone, as they should, has loved Lombardozzi and the way he’s been playing in his first full year in the Bigs.  His approach at the plate, also, seems like that of a typical leadoff hitter.  He is somewhat of a slap hitter and does not strikeout very much at all.  In fact, he strikesout the least on the team (only 8.8% of the time) for those with at least 15 plate appearances.  That all seems great, but how is he performing in the leadoff role?

Currently in the 1-hole, Lombardozzi is batting .235 (44th in the MLB for those with at least 50 PAs) with a .278 on-base percentage (46th in the MLB).  That is what I like to call ‘not gettin’ it done’.

Now, Espinosa in the 1-hole.  He is batting .371 with a .450 on-base percentage.  He has struck out the same amount as Lombardozzi at that spot in the lineup with less than half the at-bats, but I don’t think that matters at all when you compare their OBPs.  Espinosa has also walked the same amount as Lombardozzi at leadoff with less than half the at-bats.

The ability to get on base is the key asset you want your leadoff to possess, and Espinosa has just been better at it in that leadoff role.  Another key asset is the ability to run the bases.  Currently, Espinosa has 11 stolen bases to Lombardozzi’s goose egg.  He’s only attempted once and was caught.

I still love Lombo, but probably in a different role.  Later in the lineup (batting .286 with a .400 OBP in the 9-hole) and as a pinch hitter (batting .273 with a .429 OBP).  Davey is learning a lot about this team as we go, and we’re still able to get Ws through it due to our great starting staff.  This team has nowhere to go but up, and we’re already at the top.

Yesterday the inevitable, when Davey Johnson announced that Ross Detwiler would now be the 5th starter in the Nationals’ rotation.  Anybody that pays any attention to this team at all probably could have told you this would be a great move before Wang’s last start where he was yanked in the 4th after giving up 5 runs.  Detwiler has a better WHIP at 1.21 than pitchers like Tim Hudson and Zack Greinke.  He hasn’t even given up a hit in his last 3 appearances, or 7.1 innings of work.

The fact of the matter is he’s a 26 year old former 6th overall pick, a lefty with a fastball in the mid-90s, that is finally coming into his own.  He was never removed from the rotation for Wang because he wasn’t pitching well.  Wang is a guy that needs to throw bullpen for 6 days before he’s warm, so can’t pitch in relief.  Detwiler has more versatility, so Davey tried it out.  That expirment has run its course, and the Nats are back to having the strongest rotation in baseball.